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Mar. 25, 2009 to Mar. 27, 2009
ISBN: 978-0-7695-3593-7
pp: 617-621
The paper establishes an indicator and model system aiming at predicting macroeconomic risks for a nation. The main characters of the system lie in the several aspects: it focuses on national macroeconomic risks rather than complex risks or the risks for some special business or department; it selects only the indicators which possess the most important influences directly on the macro-economy and the indicators with each others are separately in causality and logic; it learns the lessons from the macroeconomic crises in history and from the current global recession resulted from the financial tsunami; it is a general system for the various nations. The eleven
macroeconomic risks; economic crisis; subprime crisis; risk prediction indicator; risk prediction model; national risks; financial tsunami; global recession
Yingnan Zhang, Degong Ma, "An Indicator and Model System Predicting National Macroeconomic Risks", UKSIM, 2009, Computer Modeling and Simulation, International Conference on, Computer Modeling and Simulation, International Conference on 2009, pp. 617-621, doi:10.1109/UKSIM.2009.111
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