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Issue No.06 - November/December (2007 vol.24)
pp: 2-5
Published by the IEEE Computer Society
ABSTRACT
The agile software development movement is displaying signs of maturity, with sobering, reconciliatory, and reflective undertones. An unscientific, informal survey of attendees at the Agile 2007 conference yielded several interesting results. Most respondents were not newcomers to the agile field. A small majority of respondents believed that agile had come of age and become mainstream. And an overwhelming majority said that "agile" had become a buzzword and that the field had had impact.
Nearly 1,200 people attended the Agile 2007 conference in Washington, D.C. in August. The conference was sold out months in advance, so evidently the upward trend in demand is continuing. Meanwhile, the agile software development movement is displaying signs of maturity with sobering, reconciliatory, and reflective undertones. If these undertones become more pronounced, they will represent a noteworthy departure from the euphoric, dogmatic, and unquestioning attitudes that, according to critics, dominated the agile community in its early years.
Indicators
The traditional software engineering community has evolved in how it perceives the agile movement. Many respectable agilist folks nowadays admit that they've learned and evolved, too. While not turning their backs to the Agile Manifesto, some display a mildly critical view of their beloved paradigm, timidly acknowledging its limitations and disapproving the religious aura that still sometimes surrounds it. The message is that agility is just part of a bigger puzzle; like all things, it's neither complete nor definitive. If you're an agile zealot, this coming to terms with reality might sound outrageous, but it doesn't surprise many other loyal, sensible agile supporters. And that reality is that hoards of industrial adopters have been taking a moderate, commonsense approach. The wholesale, uncompromising vanilla approach has proven hard to sell.
Another subtle indicator is the growing recognition of early software pioneers who advocated similar concepts long before the Agile Manifesto existed. Such people are now more regularly featured in agile software development events.
While not widespread, an open attitude toward approaches that were once dismissed as unagile or "waterfallish" is also in the air. At the front end, requirements engineering, architecting, and interaction design—and at the back end, traditional quality assurance and testing approaches—are notable examples that attract interest. A minority can now envision cross-pollination among approaches that previously represented sharply opposing postures. This is progress, even if it doesn't signal an imminent end to the agile mentality's apparent sectarian isolation.
Self-perceptions
To gauge the agile software development community's perception of how far it has come, I ran a casual survey in the conference hotel's hallways in D.C. Armed with a tablet PC, I intercepted unsuspecting delegates, flashing the touch-sensitive screen that displayed a few binary questions.
"Would you take a 10-second survey on perceptions of agile? I swear, it won't take more than 10 seconds. Just answer these five questions by hitting 'Yes' or 'No' with your fingertip. You can skip any question."
"Isn't there a 'Maybe' option?"
"Sorry, just 'Yes' or 'No'!" (There go seven seconds.)
While a few walked away with suspicious, disapproving looks that made me feel like a sleazy telemarketer, more than enough gentle people actually humored me. I thank those who took the time to respond. After my 150th victim, I decided to stop and enjoy the conference.
However, before Forrest Shull, our Empirical Results editor, lectures me for my poor study design, let me come clean. My improvised survey is flawed and unscientific. I conceived the whole thing during a session that couldn't sustain my interest. My subject population was more than mildly biased. My sampling wasn't quite random, either: besides asking complete strangers, I coerced a few people I know into participating:
"Hi Hakan, good to see you!"
"Yes, me too, now please take my survey."
When somebody I'd randomly picked looked too serious, I got scared and tried to spot a friendlier face. I didn't approach mean-looking people at all, so the results can't be generalized to mean-looking people. Finally, I didn't have approval from some ethics board. There.
To compensate for the survey's deficiencies, I present the results as a meaningfully colored bar chart in figure 1. Because a bar chart can't be sufficiently informative without interpretation, I insist on elaborating.


Figure 1. Survey results relating to perceptions of agile development.

Everybody knows something about agile
Only a minority of respondents (23 percent) identified themselves as newcomers to agile (meaning new to the concept, not the conference). This was important for me to know because I wondered whether newcomers would have different perceptions. It appears that the results are representative only of non-newcomers. Oh well.
Despite my nonrandom sampling, the low representation of newcomers perplexed me a bit because it doesn't quite account for the tremendous growth the conference has been enjoying (unless most newbies are mean-looking).
Maturity and penetration
Of the respondents, 65 percent said that agile had come of age. Subjectively, many didn't seem particularly confident about their answer, or were confused. When they asked for clarification, I replied "I mean, has it matured?" and left it at that. If I could put on my overeager-researcher hat, I'd exclaim, "The agile movement's maturity is now official!" But I'll use my discretion and hold back, wisely ignoring this strong statistic.
A weak majority, 56 percent, said that agile had become mainstream. Because the remaining 44 percent of the agile folks think they might still be lurking in the fringes, I'll also refrain from declaring victory of massive penetration—unfortunately. I'm hearing, "We're not there yet."
A bittersweet consensus
An overwhelming majority, 92 percent, said that "agile" has become a buzzword. An unverifiable nuance was that this affirmation came with a sigh or a head shake. An even greater majority, a whopping 95 percent, thought that agile has had impact. The ones who hit the Yes button did it with an expression of great conviction—but again, I have no way of proving this observation either. You can either believe me or not.
Even though the survey was light-hearted, I felt that the respondents were serious and sincere. Humor aside, I share their collective opinion regarding the agile movement's impact and exploitation. On one hand, the trend has had more than minor positive influence. But no doubt, "agile" is now a glaring buzzword.
For independent confirmation of agile's rising megapopularity, look no further than CNNMoney's "The 50 Who Matter Now" list. (The Web site describes itself as "an unabashedly subjective list of people, products, trends, and ideas that are transforming the world of business.") Agile software development (albeit with an uninformed characterization) ranks at number 18 (see http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/biz2/0706/gallery.50whomatter.biz2/33.html), curiously alongside the likes of Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs, and Larry Page. Whatever else such a confused ranking might imply, it does point to some sort of impact and widespread commercial exploitation. There could be other reasons that the trend attracted the CNNMoney editors' attention, but they escape me.
Self-threats
So, why do its most ardent advocates think that "agile" has become a buzzword? Could it have something to do with its lingo's all-too-often-diluted overuse? Or its principles' indiscriminate overapplication in infinite regress in arbitrary and sometimes completely inappropriate contexts? Philippe Kruchten's recent satire "Voyage in the Agile Memeplex" ( ACM Queue, July/Aug. 2007, pp. 38–44) takes a stab at this kind of bizarre decontextualization. At times, the tendency to overuse and overapply borders on the ridiculous. A suicidal example that I recently came across is the suggestion to boot-strap the Agile Manifesto by continuously revising it.
For many critics, a second issue threatening the trend's maturity is the lack of genuine debate at the grassroots level. The openness seen in some niche circles doesn't appear to percolate to that level. A reflective panel that I attended demonstrated this reluctance. The panel started on good footing with calls to open-mindedness, moderation, and inclusiveness, but gradually degenerated into the typical us-versus-them love-in, thus defeating its own purpose. If such attitudes don't subside, the agile movement risks losing the cautious, qualified endorsement and interest it has begun receiving from the traditional software engineering and research communities. Whether this matters or not is of course another question.
Evolution through devolution
It's counterproductive to equate abstract shades of agility with degrees of good and noble. The Agile Manifesto might be timeless, but the adjective "agile" as an umbrella term will ultimately outlive its usefulness, if it already hasn't. The explosion in industrial adoption of agile processes, Scrum in particular, and individual practices such as test-driven development will keep the term afloat for the near future. But how should the community respond to its central vocabulary's continuing dilution?
Once the main messages have reached the masses, it will be time to deconstruct agility by moving away from labels and refocusing on what ultimately matters: its essence. That essence consists of the articulated values and principles, as well as the concrete practices, techniques, and methods that the movement has spun off. These are the real intellectual tools that deserve permanence. Each such tool has varying degrees of merit in different contexts, depending on whether it is applied independently, synergistically, or in combination with complementary approaches.
Conclusion
What's your take? Write me at hakan. erdogmus@computer.org.
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