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<p><b>Abstract</b>—In this paper, we prove that under the assumption of conditional independence, the EMYCIN formula for sequential propagation can be derived <it>strictly</it> from the definition of the certainty factor according to probability theory. We already have known that Adams [<ref rid="bibk03551" type="bib">1</ref>] and Schocken [<ref rid="bibk035515" type="bib">15</ref>] have proved that the EMYCIN formula for parallel propagation is partially consistent with probability theory. Our result supplements their contribution and, together with theirs, explains why the EMYCIN model has been working reasonably well.</p>
Uncertainty, expert system, probability theory, certainty factor, sequential propagation.

X. Luo and C. Zhang, "Proof of the Correctness of EMYCIN Sequential Propagation Under Conditional Independence Assumptions," in IEEE Transactions on Knowledge & Data Engineering, vol. 11, no. , pp. 355-359, 1999.
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