Characterizing and Visualizing Predictive Uncertainty in Numerical Ensembles Through Bayesian Model Averaging
Issue No. 12 - Dec. (2013 vol. 19)
DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/TVCG.2013.138
Numerical ensemble forecasting is a powerful tool that drives many risk analysis efforts and decision making tasks. These ensembles are composed of individual simulations that each uniquely model a possible outcome for a common event of interest: e.g., the direction and force of a hurricane, or the path of travel and mortality rate of a pandemic. This paper presents a new visual strategy to help quantify and characterize a numerical ensemble's predictive uncertainty: i.e., the ability for ensemble constituents to accurately and consistently predict an event of interest based on ground truth observations. Our strategy employs a Bayesian framework to first construct a statistical aggregate from the ensemble. We extend the information obtained from the aggregate with a visualization strategy that characterizes predictive uncertainty at two levels: at a global level, which assesses the ensemble as a whole, as well as a local level, which examines each of the ensemble's constituents. Through this approach, modelers are able to better assess the predictive strengths and weaknesses of the ensemble as a whole, as well as individual models. We apply our method to two datasets to demonstrate its broad applicability.
Bayes methods, Mathematical model, Predictive models, Numerical models, Data visualization
L. Gosink et al., "Characterizing and Visualizing Predictive Uncertainty in Numerical Ensembles Through Bayesian Model Averaging," in IEEE Transactions on Visualization & Computer Graphics, vol. 19, no. 12, pp. 2703-2712, 2013.