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Proceedings. The IEEE/ACS International Conference on Pervasive Services (2004)
Beirut, Lebanon
July 23, 2004 to July 23, 2004
ISBN: 0-7803-8577-2
pp: 189-198
Z. Liu , Moncton Univ., NB, Canada
J. Almhana , Moncton Univ., NB, Canada
V. Choulakian , Moncton Univ., NB, Canada
ABSTRACT
This paper models Internet traffic input stream and TCP connection durations using dynamical system models. A linear dynamical model with mixture Gaussian output is proposed for the Internet traffic input stream, and a linear dynamical system with mixture lognormal output is developed to model the TCP connection durations. In the proposed models, a sum of independent AR (Anderson and Nielsen, 1998) processes is used to approximate the autocorrelation of the real data, and a Gaussian mixture or lognormal mixture is used to fit the marginal distribution. As a result, the output processes can capture the correlation and the marginal distribution simultaneously. Making use of the fact that at each iteration the parameter increment of the EM algorithm has a positive projection on the gradient of the likelihood, a stochastic approximation-based recursive EM algorithm is proposed to fit the traffic marginal distribution, A cross-validation criterion is used for the model selection. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed models, several experimental results are provided.
INDEX TERMS
Internet, performance evaluation, transport protocols, statistical analysis, telecommunication traffic, statistical distributions
CITATION

Z. Liu, J. Almhana, V. Choulakian and R. McGorman, "Internet performance modeling using mixture dynamical system models," Proceedings. The IEEE/ACS International Conference on Pervasive Services(PERSER), Beirut, Lebanon, , pp. 189-198.
doi:10.1109/PERSER.2004.1356797
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