## A probabilistic loading-dependent model of cascading failure and possible implications for blackouts

2014 47th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (2003)

Big Island, Hawaii

Jan. 6, 2003 to Jan. 9, 2003

ISBN: 0-7695-1874-5

pp: 65a

Ian Dobson , University of Wisconsin

David E. Newman , University of Alaska

Benjamin A. Carreras , Oak Ridge National Laboratory

ABSTRACT

Catastrophic disruptions of large,interconnected infrastructure systems are often due to cascading failure. For example, large blackouts of electric power systems are typically caused by cascading failure of heavily loaded system components.We introduce the CASCADE model of cascading failure of a system with many identical components randomly loaded. An initial disturbance causes some components to fail by exceeding their loading limit. Failure of a component causes a ?xed load increase for other components. As components fail,the system becomes more loaded and cascading failure of further components becomes likely. The probability distribution of the number of failed components is an extended quasibinomial distribution. Explicit formulas for the extended quasibinomial distribution are derived using a recursion. The CASCADE model in a restricted parameter range gives a new model yielding the quasibinomial distribution. Some qualitative behaviors of the extended quasibinomial distribution are illustrated, including regimes with power tails, exponential tails,and signi?cant probabilities of total system failure.

INDEX TERMS

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CITATION

Ian Dobson,
David E. Newman,
Benjamin A. Carreras,
"A probabilistic loading-dependent model of cascading failure and possible implications for blackouts",

*2014 47th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences*, vol. 02, no. , pp. 65a, 2003, doi:10.1109/HICSS.2003.1173909