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2010 International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security (2010)
Krakow, Poland
Feb. 15, 2010 to Feb. 18, 2010
ISBN: 978-0-7695-3965-2
pp: 671-676
An operational complexity model (OCM) is proposed to enable the complexity of both the cognitive and the computational components of a process to be determined. From the complexity of formation of a set of traces via a specified route a measure of the probability of that route can be determined. By determining the complexities of alternative routes leading to the formation of the same set of traces, the odds ratio indicating the relative plausibility of the alternative routes can be found. An illustrative application to a BitTorrent piracy case is presented, and the results obtained suggest that the OCM is capable of providing a realistic estimate of the odds ratio for two competing hypotheses. It is also demonstrated that the OCM can be straightforwardly refined to encompass a variety of circumstances.
operational complexity model, posterior probability, odds ratio, digital forensics, evidential probability, competing hypotheses

K. Chow, J. A. Silomon and R. E. Overill, "A Complexity Based Model for Quantifying Forensic Evidential Probabilities," 2010 International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security(ARES), Krakow, Poland, 2010, pp. 671-676.
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