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Issue No. 03 - May/June (2005 vol. 25)
ISSN: 0272-1732
pp: 10-12
Shane Greenstein ,
Most companies generate little drama as they manage the daily tension of their uncertain futures. And they rather like it that way, since forecasting errors can generate bad publicity. <p> After the fact, it is usually easy to understand why a calculated gamble failed due to a bit of bad luck. It is more difficult to identify a mistake for which management is responsible. In this column, I?ll focus on one type of maddening forecasting error, a strategy determined by a single conceptual framework. Call these foresight traps.</p> <p> No companies ever escape foresight traps. However, some do a better job of avoiding a big and costly one. It is worthwhile to understand why. It illuminates one of the most fundamental managerial challenges in high-tech markets.</p>

S. Greenstein, "The anatomy of foresight traps," in IEEE Micro, vol. 25, no. , pp. 10-12, 2005.
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