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Issue No.03 - July-September (2011 vol.33)
pp: 46-54
Jonathan G. Koomey , Stanford University
Stephen Berard , Microsoft
Marla Sanchez , Carnegie Mellon University
Henry Wong , Intel
<p>The electrical efficiency of computation has doubled roughly every year and a half for more than six decades, a pace of change comparable to that for computer performance and electrical efficiency in the microprocessor era. These efficiency improvements enabled the creation of laptops, smart phones, wireless sensors, and other mobile computing devices, with many more such innovations yet to come. The Web Extra appendix outlines the data and methods used in this study.</p>
history of computing, electrical efficiency, power usage, computer performance, Moore's law, mobile computing
Jonathan G. Koomey, Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, Henry Wong, "Implications of Historical Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing", IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, vol.33, no. 3, pp. 46-54, July-September 2011, doi:10.1109/MAHC.2010.28
1. T.R. Kennedy, "Electronic Computer Flashes Answers, May Speed Engineering," New York Times,15 Feb. 1946, p. 1+.
2. D.E. Liddle, "The Wider Impact of Moore's Law," IEEE Solid-State Circuits Newsletter, Sept. 2006, pp. 28–30.
3. G.E. Moore, "Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits," Electronics, vol. 38, no. 8, 1965; moorespaper.pdf.
4. T.R. Halfhill, "The Mythology of Moore's Law: Why Such a Widely Misunderstood 'Law' Is So Captivating to So Many," IEEE SSCS Newsletter, Sept. 2006, pp. 21–25.
5. E. Mollick, "Establishing Moore's Law," IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, vol. 28, no. 3, 2006, pp. 62–75.
6. R. Kumar, "The Business of Scaling," IEEE Solid-State Circuits Newsletter, vol. 12, no. 1, 2007, pp. 22–27.
7. G.E. Moore, "Progress in Digital Integrated Electronics," IEDM Tech. Digest, IEEE Press, 1975, pp. 11–13.
8. W. Feng, "Making the Case for Efficient Supercomputing," ACM Queue, Oct. 2003, pp. 54–64.
9. W.D. Nordhaus, "Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing," J. Economic History, vol. 67, no. 1, 2007, pp. 128–159; http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edurecent_stuff.html .
10. All doubling times in the text are derived from the regression analyses described and documented in the Web Extra appendix and Table S1. See MAHC.2010.28.
11. For a broad discussion of the evolution of computer classes over time, see G. Bell, Bell's Law for the Birth and Death of Computer Classes: A Theory of the Computer's Evolution, tech. report MSR-TR-2007-146, Microsoft Research, 13 Nov. 2007; .
12. S. Lloyd, "Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation," Nature, vol. 406, no. 6799, 2000, pp. 1047–1054.
13. R.P. Feynman, The Pleasure of Finding Things Out: The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman, Penguin Books, 2001.
14. See also M. Bohr, "A 30 Year Retrospective on Dennard's MOSFET Scaling Paper," IEEE Solid-State Circuits Newsletter, vol. 12, no. 1, 2007, pp. 11–13, and Carver Mead's thinking in the late 1960s, as summarized in D.C. Brock ed., , Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation, Chemical Heritage Press, 2006, pp. 98–100.
15. T. Mainelli personal communication with J. Koomey14 Apr. 2009.
16. D. Daoud personal communication with J. Koomey31 Mar. 2009.
17. J.M. Kaplan, W. Forrest, and N. Kindler, Revolutionizing Data Center Efficiency, McKinsey & Co. report, 2008; Revolutionizing.asp.
18. B.J. Johnson and C.R. Zoi, "EPA Energy Star Computers: The Next Generation of Office Equipment," Proc. 1992 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Am. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, 1992, pp. 6.107–6.114.
19. M. Sanchez, G. Homan, and R. Brown, Calendar Year 2007 Program Benefits for Energy Star Labeled Products, tech report LBNL-1217E, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., Oct. 2008.
20. K. Asanovíc et al., The Landscape of Parallel Computing Research: A View from Berkeley, tech. report UCB/EECS-2006-183, Univ. of California at Berkeley, 18 Dec. 2006; www. EECS-2006-183.pdf.
21. M. Bohr, "A 30 Year Retrospective on Dennard's MOSFET Scaling Paper," IEEE Solid-State Circuits Newsletter, vol. 12, no. 1, 2007, pp. 11–13.
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