Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty
May/June 2006 (vol. 23 no. 3)
pp. 48-54
One software product company found that its project duration estimation accuracy followed a lognormal distribution and the uncertainty range was nearly identical at all stages in the project life cycle. This conflicts with popular interpretation of the "cone of uncertainty" concept.
Index Terms:
software estimation, project management, uncertainty, risk management, process metrics
Citation:
Todd Little, "Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty," IEEE Software, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 48-54, May/June 2006, doi:10.1109/MS.2006.82