11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS'05) A Replication of the Use of Regression towards the Mean (R2M) as an Adjustment to Effort Estimation Models Como, Italy September 19-September 22 ISBN: 0-7695-2371-4
OBJECTIVE - the aim of this investigation is to perform an independent replication of the J?rgensen et al. study that advocates exploiting a phenomenon known as regression to the mean for software project productivity when predicting software project effort. METHOD - we used two further industrial data sets in which we compare accuracy levels with and without this adjustment. RESULTS - our results were broadly consistent with those from the J?rgensen study. Using the R2M resulted in a small increase in predictive accuracy. For one data set it was necessary to first partition it into more homogeneous subsets. Also when there was very weak correlation between predicted and actual productivity using the sample mean was the least bad strategy. CONCLUSIONS - we believe that independent validation of results is an important activity. Specifically our results add further support for the R2M approach in that there is a small, but positive, effect upon prediction accuracy. By combining results from both studies we observe a consistency across all 7 data sets.
Index Terms:
project management, software project effort estimation, estimation by analogy, regression towards the mean, replication, empirical analysis
Citation:
Martin Shepperd, Michelle Cartwright, "A Replication of the Use of Regression towards the Mean (R2M) as an Adjustment to Effort Estimation Models," metrics, pp.38, 11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS'05), 2005 Usage of this product signifies your acceptance of the Terms of Use. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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