The identification of performance issues on specific computer architectures has a variety of important benefits such as tuning software to improve performance, comparing the performance of various platforms and assisting in the design of new platforms. In order to enable this analysis, most modern micro-processors provide access to hardware-based event counters. Unfortunately, features such as out-of-order execution, pre-fetching and speculation complicate the interpretation of the raw data. Thus, the traditional approach of assigning a uniform estimated penalty to each event does not accurately identify and quantify performance limiters. This paper presents a novel method employing a statistical regression-modeling approach to better achieve this goal. Specifically, a model-tree based approach based on the M5' algorithm is implemented and validated that accounts for event interactions and workload characteristics. Data from a subset of the SPEC CPU2006 suite is used by the algorithm to automatically build a performance-model tree, identifying the unique performance classes (phases) found in the suite and associating with each class a unique, explanatory linear model of performance events. These models can be used to identify performance problems for a given workload and estimate the potential gain from addressing each problem. This information can help orient the performance optimization efforts to focus available time and resources on techniques most likely to impact performance problems with highest potential gain. The model tree exhibits high correlation (more than 0.98) and low relative absolute error (less than 8 %) between predicted and measured performance, attesting it as a sound approach for performance analysis of modern superscalar machines