Using modern graphics processing units for no-graphics high performance computing is motivated by their enhanced programmability, attractive price/performance ratio and incredible growth in speed. Although the pipeline of a modern graphics processing unit (GPU) permits high throughput and more concurrency, they bring more complexities in analyzing the performance of GPU-based applications. In this paper, we identify factors that determine performance of GPU-based applications. We then classify them into three categories: data-linear, data-constant and computation-dependent. According to the characteristics of these factors, we propose a performance model for each factor. These models are then used to predict the performance of bio-sequence database scanning application on GPUs. Theoretical analyses and measurements show that our models can achieve precise performance predictions.