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Fifth International Conference on Hybrid Intelligent Systems (HIS'05)
Stock Market Simulation and Inference Technique
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
December 06-December 09
ISBN: 0-7695-2457-5
McGregor J. Collie, Monash University, Wellington Road, Vic., Australia
David L. Dowe, Monash University, Wellington Road, Vic., Australia
Leigh J. Fitzgibbon, Monash University, Wellington Road, Vic., Australia
We present an agent-based stock market simulation in which traders utilise a hybrid mixture of common information criteria based inference procedures, including minimum message length (MML) inference. Traders in our model compete with each other using a range of different inference techniques to infer the parameters and appropriate order of simple autoregressive (AR) models of stock price evolution. We show that such traders are initially profitable while a significant population of random traders exist, and that MML inference traders outperform other inference traders in the presence of a noisy AR signal.
Citation:
McGregor J. Collie, David L. Dowe, Leigh J. Fitzgibbon, "Stock Market Simulation and Inference Technique," his, pp.534-538, Fifth International Conference on Hybrid Intelligent Systems (HIS'05), 2005
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