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Proceedings of the 39th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'06) Track 10
Kauai, Hawaii
January 04-January 07
ISBN: 0-7695-2507-5
Miroslav Begovic, Georgia Institute of Technology
Petar Djuric, State University of New York at Stony Brook
Joshua Perkel, Georgia Institute of Technology
Branislav Vidakovic, Georgia Institute of Technology
Damir Novosel, KEMA T&D Consulting
When large amount of statistical information about power system component failure rate is available, statistical parametric models can be developed for predictive maintenance. Often times, only partial information is available: installation date and amount, as well as failure and replacement rates. By combining sufficiently large number of yearly populations of the components, estimation of model parameters may be possible. The parametric models may then be used for forecasting of the system?s short term future failure and for formulation of replacement strategies. We employ the Weibull distribution and show how we estimate its parameters from past failure data. Using Monte Carlo simulations, it is possible to assess confidence ranges of the forecasted component performance data.
Citation:
Miroslav Begovic, Petar Djuric, Joshua Perkel, Branislav Vidakovic, Damir Novosel, "New Probabilistic Method for Estimation of Equipment Failures and Development of Replacement Strategies," hicss, vol. 10, pp.246a, Proceedings of the 39th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'06) Track 10, 2006
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