Branching Process Models for the Exponentially Increasing Portions of Cascading Failure Blackouts

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Proceedings of the 38th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'05) - Track 2

Branching Process Models for the Exponentially Increasing Portions of Cascading Failure Blackouts (PDF)

Big Island, Hawaii

January 03-January 06

ISBN: 0-7695-2268-8

	ASCII Text	x
	Ian Dobson, Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman, "Branching Process Models for the Exponentially Increasing Portions of Cascading Failure Blackouts," Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, vol. 2, pp. 64a, Proceedings of the 38th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'05) - Track 2, 2005.

	BibTex	x
	@article{ 10.1109/HICSS.2005.125, author = {Ian Dobson and Benjamin A. Carreras and David E. Newman}, title = {Branching Process Models for the Exponentially Increasing Portions of Cascading Failure Blackouts}, journal ={Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences}, volume = {2}, year = {2005}, issn = {1530-1605}, pages = {64a}, doi = {http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/HICSS.2005.125}, publisher = {IEEE Computer Society}, address = {Los Alamitos, CA, USA}, }

	RefWorks Procite/RefMan/Endnote	x
	TY - CONF JO - Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences TI - Branching Process Models for the Exponentially Increasing Portions of Cascading Failure Blackouts SN - 1530-1605 SP EP A1 - Ian Dobson, A1 - Benjamin A. Carreras, A1 - David E. Newman, PY - 2005 KW - null VL - 2 JA - Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences ER -

Ian Dobson, University of Wisconsin, Madison WI

Benjamin A. Carreras, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge TN

David E. Newman, University of Alaska, Fairbanks AK

DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/HICSS.2005.125

We introduce branching process models in discrete and continuous time for the exponentially increasing phase of cascading blackouts. Cumulative line trips from real blackout data have portions consistent with these branching process models. Some initial calculations identifying parameters and using a branching process model to estimate blackout probabilities during and after the blackout are illustrated.

Citation:

Ian Dobson, Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman, "Branching Process Models for the Exponentially Increasing Portions of Cascading Failure Blackouts," hicss, vol. 2, pp.64a, Proceedings of the 38th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'05) - Track 2, 2005

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