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First International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM 2007)
Is This Cost Estimate Reliable? -- The Relationship between Homogeneity of Analogues and Estimation Reliability
Madrid, Spain
September 20-September 21
ISBN: 0-7695-2886-4
Naoki Ohsugi, Nara Institute of Science and Technology, Japan
Akito Monden, Nara Institute of Science and Technology, Japan
Nahomi Kikuchi, Information-technology Promotion Agency, Japan
Michael D. Barker, Nara Institute of Science and Technology, Japan
Masateru Tsunoda, Nara Institute of Science and Technology, Japan
Takeshi Kakimoto, Nara Institute of Science and Technology, Japan
Ken-ichi Matsumoto, Nara Institute of Science and Technology, Japan
Analogy-based cost estimation provides a useful and intuitive means to support decision making in software project management. It derives a cost estimate required for completing a project from information about similar past projects, namely the analogues. While on average this method provides a relatively accurate cost estimate there remains a possibility of large estimation errors. In this paper, we empirically tested the hypothesis that "using more homogeneous analogues produces a more reliable cost estimate" using a software engineering data repository established by the Software Engineering Center (SEC), Information-technology Promotion Agency, Japan. This testing showed that low and high homogeneity projects had a large variation in estimation reliability. For instance, the difference was 22.9% (p = 0.021) in terms of percentage to get accurate estimates (better than Median of Magnitude of Relative Error).
Citation:
Naoki Ohsugi, Akito Monden, Nahomi Kikuchi, Michael D. Barker, Masateru Tsunoda, Takeshi Kakimoto, Ken-ichi Matsumoto, "Is This Cost Estimate Reliable? -- The Relationship between Homogeneity of Analogues and Estimation Reliability," esem, pp.384-392, First International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM 2007), 2007
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