In this work, we present an algorithm to analytically estimate the frame goodput of a correlated MPEG-2 video source that traverses a first network node?s buffer; where frame goodput is defined as the ratio of the number cells in completely and correctly transmitted frames through the buffer to the total number of cells arriving to the buffer. The effect of changing the output-to-input line speeds on the frame goodput is also investigated. By using this algorithm, a buffer that is three times the maximum frame size is seen to yield loss probability of 10.... 6 at a normalized output line rate of 0.... 28 for a load of 20%. A maximum simulation error margin of ?30% for values in the order of 10.... 5 with a 98% confidence was achieved.