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Ranks of Software Developers Thinning
By BYC Newsfeed, On 5/5/09 11:31 PM

The number of developers in India and China will increase by 22 percent over the next two years, but shrink by 35 percent in the rest of the world this year and only modestly recover the year after that. Evans Data’s 2009 Global Developer Population and Demographics Study shows a 78 percent decline in the 2009 growth forecast for developers in North America, Japan, and Western Europe. For the years 2010 and 2011, some measure of recovery is projected however full recovery to prior forecasted levels of growth are not expected until 2012. The survey, based on responses from 1,200 developers around the world, notes that with 5.6 million developers, the EMEA region boasts the world’s largest developer population.

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What is that supposed to mean - 35% of today's... Christian Treber 5/6/09 11:02 PM
This is either junk science or junk reporting. Is... Jitendra Singh 5/7/09 1:01 PM
Christian, Evans Data each year offers predictions... richard lewis 5/8/09 1:47 AM

What is that supposed to mean - 35% of today's developers are going to be unemployed by the end of the year? Or they will not be developers anymore and will do something else (requirement engineers, business analysts etc)? And even if the growth forecast would shrink by 78%, wouldn't there be some growth left (and thus an increase)?

Half of the news is missing here, or I'm not quite getting it...

Posted on 5/6/09 11:02 PM.

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This is either junk science or junk reporting.

Is 1200 developers a significant-enough sample? Which countries were sampled in the survey? Why are the opinions of developers (as opposed to buyers of services) the definitive word?

When was the survey taken? Wouldn't the responses be a function of the prevailing business outlooks when the survey was taken?

Posted on 5/7/09 1:01 PM.

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Christian, Evans Data each year offers predictions of the growth of the software developer population by region around the world. The 2009 report revised the firm's growth projections for 2009 downward for the global developer population. Evans Data cited changing economic conditions around the globe as the reason for the revised projection.

For North America, Japan, and Western Europe, where the most severe impact will be in 2009, the growth projections from the prior forecast were reduced 78 percent. The 2009 impact on the "rest of world" will be much less severe but were nevertheless projected by Evans to see significant decrease of 35 percent from last year's forecast.

For the years 2010 and 2011, Evans projects some measure of recovery. Full recovery to prior forecasted levels of growth are not expected until 2012.

Source: http://www.ciol.com/developer/feature/developer-population-growth-revised-downward/4509119152/0/

Posted on 5/8/09 1:47 AM.

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