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UKSim 2009: 11th International Conference on Computer Modelling and Simulation
An Indicator and Model System Predicting National Macroeconomic Risks
March 25-March 27
ISBN: 978-0-7695-3593-7
The paper establishes an indicator and model system aiming at predicting macroeconomic risks for a nation. The main characters of the system lie in the several aspects: it focuses on national macroeconomic risks rather than complex risks or the risks for some special business or department; it selects only the indicators which possess the most important influences directly on the macro-economy and the indicators with each others are separately in causality and logic; it learns the lessons from the macroeconomic crises in history and from the current global recession resulted from the financial tsunami; it is a general system for the various nations. The eleven
Index Terms:
macroeconomic risks; economic crisis; subprime crisis; risk prediction indicator; risk prediction model; national risks; financial tsunami; global recession
Citation:
Yingnan Zhang, Degong Ma, "An Indicator and Model System Predicting National Macroeconomic Risks," uksim, pp.617-621, UKSim 2009: 11th International Conference on Computer Modelling and Simulation, 2009
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