This Article 
   
 Share 
   
 Bibliographic References 
   
 Add to: 
 
Digg
Furl
Spurl
Blink
Simpy
Google
Del.icio.us
Y!MyWeb
 
 Search 
   
Modeling Software Bidding Risks
June 2003 (vol. 29 no. 6)
pp. 542-554

Abstract—We discuss a method of developing a software bidding model that allows users to visualize the uncertainty involved in pricing decisions and make appropriate bid/no bid decisions. We present a generic bidding model developed using the modeling method. The model elements were identified after a review of bidding research in software and other industries. We describe the method we developed to validate our model and report the main results of our model validation, including the results of applying the model to four bidding scenarios.

[1] T.K. Abdel-Hamid and S.E. Madnick, Lessons Learned from Modeling the Dynamics of Software Development Comm. ACM, vol. 32, no. 12, pp. 1426-1438, Dec. 1989.
[2] M. Berry and M.F. Vanderbroek, A Targeted Assessment of the Software Measurement Process Proc. IEEE Seventh Int'l Software Metrics Symp., pp. 222-235, 2001.
[3] B.W. Boehm, Software Engineering Economics. Prentice Hall, 1981.
[4] B. Carter, T. Hancock, J-M. Morin, and N. Robins, Introducing RISKMAN Methodology: The European Project Risk Management Methodology. NCC Blackwell, 1994.
[5] N.N. Dawood, A Strategy for Knowledge Elicitation for Developing Integrated Bidding/Production Management Expert System for the Pre-Cast Industry Advances in Eng. Software, vol. 25, pp. 225-234, 1996.
[6] T. DeMarco, Controlling Software Projects. Prentice-Hall, 1982.
[7] F.F. Easton and D.R. Moodie, Pricing and Lead-Time Decisions for Make-to-Order Forms with Contingent Orders European J. Operational Research, vol. 116, no. 2, pp. 305-318, 1999.
[8] R. Fairley, Risk Management for Software Projects IEEE Software, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 57-67, 1994.
[9] N.O.E. Fenton and M. Neil, “A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Models,” IEEE Trans. Software Eng., vol. 25, no. 5, pp. 675-689, Sept./Oct. 1999.
[10] M. Jørgensen and D.I.K. Sjøberg, Impact of Effort Estimates on Software Project Work Information and Software Technology, vol. 43, no. 15, pp. 939-948, 2001.
[11] M. Jørgensen and D.I.K. Sjøberg, A Simple Effort Prediction Interval Approach Achieving Quality in Information Systems (AquIS), 2002.
[12] K. Kånsåla, Integrating Risk Assessment with Cost Estimation IEEE Software, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 61-67, 1997.
[13] B. Kitchenham and S. Linkman, "Estimates, Uncertainty and Risk," IEEE Software, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 69-74, May 1997.
[14] B. Kitchenham, L. Pickard, S.G. Linkman, and P. Jones, A Preliminary Risk-Based Software Bidding Model Keele University Technical Report TR/SE-0103, Sept. 2001, www.keele.ac. uk/depts/cs/se/e&mtr0103.pdf .
[15] B. Kitchenham, L. Pickard, S.G. Linkman, and P. Jones, A Framework for Evaluating a Software Bidding Model Proc. Empirical Assessment and Evaluation in Software Eng. Conf., Apr. 2002.
[16] B. Kitchenham, L. Pickard, S.G. Linkman, and P. Jones, A Process for Evaluating a Software Bidding Model Technical Report TR/SE-0201, Keele Univ., 2002, www.keele.ac.uk/depts/cs/se/e&m tr0201.pdf .
[17] B.A. Kitchenham, S.L. Pfleeger, L.M. Pickard, P.W. Jones, D.C. Hoaglin, K. El-Emam, and J. Rosenberg, Preliminary Guidelines for Empirical Research in Software Engineering IEEE Trans. Software Eng., vol. 28, no. 8, pp. 721-734, Aug. 2002.
[18] G. Koller, Risk Modelling for Determining Value and Decision Making. Chapman and Hall, 2000.
[19] O.I. Lindland, G. Sindre, and A. Solvberg, Understanding Quality in Conceptual Modeling IEEE Software, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 42-49, 1994.
[20] S. Makridakis, S.C. Wheelwright, and R.J. Hyndman, Forecasting Methods and Applications, third ed. John Wiley and Sons, 1998.
[21] L. Pickard, B. Kitchenham, S.G. Linkman, and P. Jones, Can Software Bidding Practices be Improved? Bidding and Portfolio Management Practices in Software and Other Industries ACM Surveys, to be published.
[22] L. Pickard, B. Kitchenham, S.G. Linkman, and P. Jones, Can Software Bidding Practices be Improved? Bidding and Portfolio Management Practices in Software and Other Industries Technical Report TR/SE-0003, Keele Univ., 2000, www.keele.ac. uk/depts/cs/se/e&mtr0003.pdf .
[23] L. Pickard, B. Kitchenham, S.G. Linkman, and P. Jones, Software Bidding Model Implementation Technical Report TR/SE-0202, Keele Univ., 2002, www.keele.ac.uk/depts/cs/se/e&mtr0202.pdf .
[24] L. Pickard, B. Kitchenham, S.G. Linkman, and P. Jones, Evaluation of the Software Bidding Model Technical Report TR/SE 0204, Keele Univ., 2002, www.keele.ac.uk/depts/cs/se/e&mtr0204.pdf .
[25] A.L. Powell, Right on Time: Measuring, Modeling and Managing Time-Constrained Software Development PhD Thesis, Dept. of Computer Science, Univ. of York, 2002.
[26] I. Stamelos and L. Angelis, Managing Uncertainty in Project Portfolio Cost Estimation Information and Software Technology, vol. 43, pp. 759-768, 2001.

Index Terms:
Software projects, bidding, risk, software cost estimation, Monte Carlo simulation, software bidding model, model validation, contingency costs.
Citation:
Barbara Kitchenham, Lesley M. Pickard, Stephen Linkman, Peter W. Jones, "Modeling Software Bidding Risks," IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, vol. 29, no. 6, pp. 542-554, June 2003, doi:10.1109/TSE.2003.1205181
Usage of this product signifies your acceptance of the Terms of Use.