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Issue No.12 - December (2008 vol.20)

pp: 1587-1600

Rui Chang , Technical University Munich, Munich

Martin Stetter , SIEMENS AG., Munich

Wilfried Brauer , Institue of Informatics, Munich

DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/TKDE.2008.89

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we consider the problem of performing quantitative Bayesian inference and model averaging based on a set of qualitative statements about relationships. Statements are transformed into parameter constraints which are imposed onto a set of Bayesian networks. Recurrent relationship structures are resolved by unfolding in time to Dynamic Bayesian networks. The approach enables probabilistic inference by model averaging, i.e. it allows to predict probabilistic quantities from a set of qualitative constraints without probability assignment on the model parameters. Model averaging is performed by Monte Carlo integration techniques. The method is applied to a problem in a molecular medical context: We show how the rate of breast cancer metastasis formation can be predicted based solely on a set of qualitative biological statements about the involvement of proteins in metastatic processes.

INDEX TERMS

Probability and Statistics, Probabilistic algorithms, Uncertainty, "fuzzy", and probabilistic reasoning, Monte Carlo, Applications and Expert Knowledge-Intensive Systems, Knowledge modeling, Knowledge engineering methodologies, Biology and genetics

CITATION

Rui Chang, Martin Stetter, Wilfried Brauer, "Quantitative Inference by Qualitative Semantic Knowledge Mining with Bayesian Model Averaging",

*IEEE Transactions on Knowledge & Data Engineering*, vol.20, no. 12, pp. 1587-1600, December 2008, doi:10.1109/TKDE.2008.89REFERENCES

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