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2010 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops
A New Data Mining Model for Hurricane Intensity Prediction
Sydney, Australia
December 13-December 13
ISBN: 978-0-7695-4257-7
| ASCII Text | x | ||
| Yu Su, Sudheer Chelluboina, Michael Hahsler, Margaret H. Dunham, "A New Data Mining Model for Hurricane Intensity Prediction," 2012 IEEE 12th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, pp. 98-105, 2010 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, 2010. | |||
| BibTex | x | ||
| @article{ 10.1109/ICDMW.2010.158, author = {Yu Su and Sudheer Chelluboina and Michael Hahsler and Margaret H. Dunham}, title = {A New Data Mining Model for Hurricane Intensity Prediction}, journal ={2012 IEEE 12th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops}, volume = {0}, year = {2010}, isbn = {978-0-7695-4257-7}, pages = {98-105}, doi = {http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/ICDMW.2010.158}, publisher = {IEEE Computer Society}, address = {Los Alamitos, CA, USA}, } | |||
| RefWorks Procite/RefMan/Endnote | x | ||
| TY - CONF JO - 2012 IEEE 12th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops TI - A New Data Mining Model for Hurricane Intensity Prediction SN - 978-0-7695-4257-7 SP98 EP105 A1 - Yu Su, A1 - Sudheer Chelluboina, A1 - Michael Hahsler, A1 - Margaret H. Dunham, PY - 2010 KW - Hurricane KW - intensity prediction KW - Markov chain VL - 0 JA - 2012 IEEE 12th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops ER - | |||
This paper proposes a new hurricane intensity prediction model, WFL-EMM, which is based on the data mining techniques of feature weight learning (WFL) and Extensible Markov Model (EMM). The data features used are those employed by one of the most popular intensity prediction models, SHIPS. In our algorithm, the weights of the features are learned by a genetic algorithm (GA) using historical hurricane data. As the GAs fitness function we use the error of the intensity prediction by an EMM learned using given feature weights. For fitness calculation we use a technique similar to k-fold cross validation on the training data. The best weights obtained by the genetic algorithm are used to build an EMM with all training data. This EMM is then applied to predict the hurricane intensities and compute prediction errors for the test data. Using historical data for the named Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1982 to 2003, experiments demonstrate that WFL-EMM provides significantly more accurate intensity predictions than SHIPS within 72 hours. Since we report here first results, we indicate how to improve WFL-EMM in the future.
Index Terms:
Hurricane, intensity prediction, Markov chain
Citation:
Yu Su, Sudheer Chelluboina, Michael Hahsler, Margaret H. Dunham, "A New Data Mining Model for Hurricane Intensity Prediction," icdmw, pp.98-105, 2010 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, 2010
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