Big Island, HI, USA
Jan. 6, 2003 to Jan. 9, 2003
B. A. Carreras , Oak Ridge National Laboratory
V.E. Lynch , Oak Ridge National Laboratory
D. E. Newman , University of Alaska
I. Dobson , University of Wisconsin
Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure and blackouts of these systems have major direct and indirect consequences on the economy and national security. Analysis of North American Electrical Reliability Council blackout data suggests the existence of blackout size distributions with power tails. This is an indication that blackout dynamics behave as a complex dynamical system. Here, we investigate how these complex system dynamics impact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. The mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care. The mitigation efforts can move the system to a new dynamic equilibrium while remaining near criticality and preserving the power tails. Thus, while the absolute frequency of disruptions of all sizes may be reduced, the underlying forces can still cause the relative frequency of large disruptions to small disruptions to remain the same. Moreover, in some cases, efforts to mitigate small disruptions can even increase the frequency of large disruptions. This occurs because the large and small disruptions are not independent but are strongly coupled by the dynamics.
B. A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D. E. Newman, I. Dobson, "Blackout Mitigation Assessment in Power Transmission Systems", HICSS, 2003, 36th Hawaii International Conference on Systems Sciences, 36th Hawaii International Conference on Systems Sciences 2003, pp. 65b, doi:10.1109/HICSS.2003.1173911