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Database and Expert Systems Applications, 15th International Workshop on (DEXA'04)
Innovation Diffusion: Predicting Success of System Development
Zaragoza, Spain
August 30-September 03
ISBN: 0-7695-2195-9
Alan Thomson, Canadian Forest Service, Canada
Mandy Haggith, worldforests, Scotland
Ravi Prabhu, Center for International Forestry Research, Indonesia
To guide technology transfer, a simulation model of the innovation diffusion process is developed in which the five attributes of an innovation (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, triability and observability) interact with adopter characteristics. These attributes are combined into a measure of innovation "fitness" to modify adoption rate. A measure of "exposure" is also developed to integrate time, communication channels and prior adoption to predict adoption rate. Behavior of the simulation is explored in relation to sparse data sets, especially in the field of information technology.
Citation:
Alan Thomson, Mandy Haggith, Ravi Prabhu, "Innovation Diffusion: Predicting Success of System Development," dexa, pp.627-631, Database and Expert Systems Applications, 15th International Workshop on (DEXA'04), 2004
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