Issue No.03 - May/June (2006 vol.23)
Todd Little , Landmark Graphics
DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MS.2006.82
One software product company found that its project duration estimation accuracy followed a lognormal distribution and the uncertainty range was nearly identical at all stages in the project life cycle. This conflicts with popular interpretation of the "cone of uncertainty" concept.
software estimation, project management, uncertainty, risk management, process metrics
Todd Little, "Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty", IEEE Software, vol.23, no. 3, pp. 48-54, May/June 2006, doi:10.1109/MS.2006.82