The Community for Technology Leaders
RSS Icon
Subscribe
Issue No.05 - Sept.-Oct. (2012 vol.14)
pp: 43-48
Michael Sachs , University of California, Davis
Donald L. Turcotte , University of California, Davis
James R. Holliday , University of California, Davis
John Rundle , University of California, Davis
ABSTRACT
Earthquakes don't have precursors that can be reliably used for earthquake prediction. However, distributions of earthquakes (seismicity) can be used to forecast an earthquake hazard. These distributions in space, time, and magnitude can be studied in a variety of ways. The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test compares the different approaches.
INDEX TERMS
Earthquakes, Forecasting, Hazards, Tsunami, Predictive models, Seismic measurements, Computational modeling, scientific computing, earthquakes, forecast testing, hazard assessment
CITATION
Michael Sachs, Donald L. Turcotte, James R. Holliday, John Rundle, "Forecasting Earthquakes: The RELM Test", Computing in Science & Engineering, vol.14, no. 5, pp. 43-48, Sept.-Oct. 2012, doi:10.1109/MCSE.2012.87
REFERENCES
1. H. Kanamori and D.L. Anderson, “Theoretical Basis of Some Empirical Relations in Seismology,” Bulletin Seismological Soc. Am., vol. 65, no. 5, 1975, pp. 1073–1095.
2. W.H. Bakun et al., “Implications for Prediction and Hazard Assessment from the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake,” Nature, vol. 437, 2005, pp. 969–974.
3. P.A. Reasenberg, “Foreshock Occurrence Rates before Large Earthquakes Worldwide,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, vol. 155, nos. 2–4, 1999, pp. 355–379.
4. D.D. Bowman et al., “An Observational Test of the Critical Earthquake Concept,” J. Geophyscial Research, vol. 103, no. B10, 1998, pp. 24359–24372.
5. J.L. Hardebeck, K.R. Fetzer, and A.J. Michael, “Improved Tests Reveal That the Accelerating Moment Release Hypothesis Is Statistically Insignificant,” J. Geophysical Research, vol. 113, no. B08310, 2008; doi:10.1029/2007JB005410.
6. E.H. Field, “Overview of the Working Group for the Development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM),” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 78, no. 1, 2007, pp. 7–16.
7. J.R. Holliday et al., “A RELM Earthquake Forecast Based on Pattern Informatics,” Seismological Research Letters, vol. 78, no. 1, 2007, pp. 87–93.
8. Y.-T. Lee et al., “Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) Test of Earthquake Forecasts in California,” Proc. Nat'l Academy of Sciences, vol. 108, no. 40, 2011, pp. 16533–16538.
9. M.K. Sachs et al., “Evaluating the RELM Test Results,” Int'l J. Geophysics, vol. 2012, no. 543482, 2012; doi:10.1155/2012/543482.
10. I.T. Jolliffe and D.B. Stephenson, Forecast Verification, John Wiley, 2003.
11. M.K. Sachs et al., “Implications of the RELM Test of Earthquake Forecasts in California,” Research in Geophysics, in press, 2012.
22 ms
(Ver 2.0)

Marketing Automation Platform Marketing Automation Tool